What is the Delphi method used for in forecasting?

The Delphi method is employed to gather expert opinions in order to reach a consensus on a particular forecast. This technique relies on the insights and judgments of specialists in a given field, which can be particularly valuable when precise data might be lacking or when trying to anticipate future trends. Through multiple rounds of questioning—often with anonymous feedback—the Delphi method encourages experts to reconsider their views as they are exposed to the collective insights of the group. This iterative process helps refine opinions and encourages more robust forecasting based on a diverse set of expert insights, ultimately leading to a well-rounded consensus.

Other options do not capture the essence of the Delphi method. Making sales forecasts using statistical data is more typical of quantitative forecasting methods rather than the qualitative focus of Delphi. Evaluating past performance trends generally involves analyzing historical data rather than gathering expert consensus. Creating simple moving averages pertains to specific statistical calculations and does not involve expert judgment, which is central to the Delphi method.